Read this from WSJ @ March 7 2015
中國有“剩女”現象嗎？
從宏觀結構數量上看，沒有。簡單說因為中國男女比例失調，有大量“多余”男性，所以即便女性都到大城市來，也只是沖淡了大城市裡原來男性過多的局面。
根據《中國2010年人口普查資料》，2010年全國新生兒男女性別比為1.19－每100個女性對應119個男性，也就是說平均每五個女生對應六個男生，或者對每個男生來講，你和宿舍同學或身邊五個同事加起來，就有一個人找不到老婆──這個數字是不是很驚人？
其實正常人類學情況下性別比並不是1，大約在1.05左右，原因是男嬰和男性的死亡率要更高一些。本文重點關注年齡在20-39歲之間的城市男女，跟Edlund教授分析的原因一樣，要選擇一個在婚姻市場和勞動力市場都相對比較穩定的群體。
數據顯示，我們平時討論的城市“剩女”根本就不是純粹的女性數量過多──全國所有地級市的市轄區在此年齡段的男女性別比平均是1.05，依然是男性數量更多。性別比例剛好平衡為1的城市包括南通和海口。男性比例最高是鄂爾多斯，1.42，而女性比例最高的是武漢，0.83，河南的信陽緊排其後，0.86。再看看北上廣──北京：1.09，上海：1.07，廣州1.11。可以看出即便是北上廣這些有大量高學歷高收入女性的城市，適婚年齡裡面的男性數量依然是遠遠多於女性。（查了一下東莞──1.2）
那分教育程度的適齡男女呢？高學歷的適齡城市女性數量比高學歷的男性數量更多還是更少？
2010年普查資料顯示，20-39歲城市人口（不等於上文的市轄區）裡擁有本科和研究生教育背景的男女性別比例為1.06，而其中更年輕的群體，20-29歲的比例是0.99。這兩個數字告訴我們，如果大家把“剩女”的討論放在20-30之間的話，那麼的確高學歷的女性數量比相同學歷的男性數量稍微多那麼一點點，但幾乎可以忽略。而對於適合工作、適合結婚以及生育年齡的整個20-39歲青年群體而言，高學歷的男女比例是1.06，依然大於1，男多女少。
事實上，如果不考慮學歷，全國城市人口20-39歲男女比例只有為1.0056，也就是說如果都是在跟自己學歷類似的群裡面尋找另一半的話，一般的城市女性面對比自己多0.56%的男性選擇，而高學歷城市女性的選擇權更廣，整整多出6%的男性可供選擇，更佔有數量上的優勢。誰說高學歷對女孩是件壞事兒？
所以，2010年的人口普查資料明確的告訴我們，城市裡面的“剩女”現象不是因為女性數目超過男性。當然，普查中的婚姻數據說明結婚率跟受教育水平成反比。“剩女”問題，不在兩性數量的失衡，而是在婚姻市場中的結構性不匹配。
是她曲高和寡，還是他不懂欣賞
其實，對婚姻市場的研究可以借助成型的勞動力市場的模板進行分析。
對於多數想結婚（這裡類比為工作）卻還處於單身（類比為失業）狀態的人來說，尋尋覓覓的過程只是正常的摩擦性“失業”。勞動力市場除了結構性失業和周期性失業之外，總會有一定程度的摩擦性失業──簡單來說，個體找工作總是需要時間尋尋覓覓，雇主招人也不可能一夜之間找到理想人選。一定程度的摩擦性失業是不用擔心的，過於著急了隨便找個工作，不認真工作跟同事處不好關系最後離職，對公司對自己都是一種不負責任。當然也有由於心灰意冷而退出婚姻戀愛市場的──勞動力市場上對應的叫做discouraged workers，失意的放棄尋找工作的人。
摩擦性失業告訴我們，真命天子都不會突然間砸到頭上的，驀然回首之前也是先要眾裡尋他千百度的。即使在男女數量和匹配結構平衡的地區，“剩男”“剩女”現象也會出現。
更嚴峻的結構性“失業”問題在婚姻市場上的體現之一是男女雙方期待值的問題。經濟學上講供給和需求，本文也分別從這兩個角度上來說（當然，供需雙方地位平等）。
先說女性在婚姻市場上的供給，這方面勞動經濟學裡的經典文章太多了，特別是2014年剛剛離世的諾貝爾經濟學獎得主、芝加哥大學貝克爾教授的大量開拓性研究，主要解釋就是當女性由於教育和就業方面的條件跟男性趨於平等，當女性在勞動力市場上機會和收入大幅提高，傳統男性賺錢養家的婚姻模式吸引力下降，導致女性在婚姻市場上的要求提高、“供給”下降。
不可否認，不少女性有雙重標準問題。錢多事少離家近的工作現實嗎？徐靜蕾說“你只負責單純善良帥”，不是所有女子都能做到。又要對方單純善良，還要高富帥，又要對方事業成功又要天天陪在身邊，這種對“暖男”+“真命天子”=“暖龍”的結合體無限期待，會在婚姻市場的選擇上出問題。對婚姻有正確的態度和期待值，非常重要，否則Mr. Right出現都不知道，還嫌七嫌八給錯過了。
再來看婚姻市場上的男性需求方。絕大多數時間大家批評“剩女”太挑剔，但批評男性的聲音太少。事實上男性對性別角色的期待，也會影響到婚戀市場匹配的效率。哈佛大學的Jisoo Hwang2014年有一篇關於“剩女”的文章《Housewife, “Gold Miss” and Equal: The Evolution of Educated Women’s Role in Asia and the U.S.》很明顯在“怪罪”男性，指出男性不能接受受過教育的並把家務活外包出去的職業女性。Hwang和接下來會講到的另一篇文章有共通的一點，就是當一個國家的經濟快速發展，並且女性的教育和工作機會上升，而社會文化和人們心態還沒有足夠快相應調整變化的時候，這時婚姻的結合就會出現問題。
很多男性在婚姻市場上會有強烈的雙重標準，要上的廳堂下的廚房，聰慧風趣漂亮賺錢之外還要掃地洗碗做飯看娃，一邊說男女平等，一邊要三從四德。Hwang的這篇博士畢業論文強調男性在婚姻選擇方面的傳統和迂腐，文章用了“準婆婆”受教育程度和是否參與工作做為一個衡量，研究發現“現代”環境下成長的男性結婚率更高，而且妻子也有工作的可能性也更高。Hwang的研究採用了經典的對比方法──同樣都是日本和韓國的男性，一組人在原籍生長，一組人從小移民到美國。文章發現從小就移民到美國並接受西方更“現代”性別和家庭觀念以後，“剩男”和“剩女”的比重都大幅下降。文章討論說，如果男性不願意共同分擔家務勞動，那麼婚姻對男性從需求角度回報大幅降低，他們則寧可選擇單身，成為剩男。
所以，當男性在特定成長環境裡形成的對女性的看法，和現代女性自己要選擇成為的角色不能均衡搭配的話，“剩男”“剩女”現象就特別突出。
還好市場並不都是“封閉”的。越來越國際化的地球村上可以跨國婚配。Daiji Kawaguchi 和Soohyung Lee 2012年研究東亞地區的“婚姻移民”《Brides for Sale: Cross-Border Marriages and Female Immigration》，研究發現在發達的東亞地區，新婚裡面4％到35％的都是外籍新娘。文章發現，在其他條件一致的情況下，韓國和日本娶外籍新娘的男性都是相對年齡較大、學歷較低、或者是農民的可能性更高。這些在本國難以內部消化的剩男，通過跨國婚姻讓自己完整了。
生物學、經濟學和社會學文獻都討論“assortative mating”──婚姻匹配。例如，2000年人口普查數據和2005年1%人口抽樣調查顯示婚姻匹配的基本模式是丈夫的受教育水平高於妻子，所謂的男性“向下選擇”。假如我們把所有男人女人按照相貌、收入、性格等綜合排序，那麼最棒的男性最終可能選擇了第二組女性，第二組男性選擇了第三組女性。最後剩下的，就是受教育最高收入最高的女性，還有第三組男性。
這整個婚姻市場鏈條式的調整，從以前穩定的配對機制到新動態平衡，關鍵是女性經濟和社會地位的提高。
在中國的語境下，新平衡還沒有穩定，在社會和文化上，許多新時代男性和女性都還沒做好相應的心理調適。男性需要開始接受洗菜做飯並不是賢妻良母的必要條件，女性也要開始接受收入沒有自己高的丈夫。如果不對現代婚姻的期待進行相應調整，剩男現象會越來越嚴重，我們受教育程度最高、收入最好並且可能是最聰明有能力的女性，她們的基因可能永遠傳遞不下去了。這對整個人類都是個浪費。
我們能做些什麼？
在宏觀上整體社會觀念沒有盡快改變的同時，有什麼微觀上我們能做的來提高婚配幾率？
1. 不為一時的摩擦性失戀沮喪。積極擁抱生活，認識新朋友。
2. 合理調整婚姻期望值（不是隨意湊合），要降低對己對人的雙重標準。
3. 找不到工作時我們會去進修或培訓來提高自己的技能，沒有找到另一半的時候，抓緊充電吧。讓自己在婚姻市場上更有魅力－－健身、旅遊、讀書等等，讓自己的生活更精彩。
4. 一個城市找不到工作，換一個城市。一個行業不適合自己，尋找自己感興趣和可以發揮比較優勢的行業。你懂的。
5. 最後，“剩女”概念本身是非常具有歧視的，所以我提倡從現在起，我們用勝利的勝字代替，或者加引號，作為一個社會課題而不是一個具體的人群來單指。
2015年3月3日 星期二
2015年1月8日 星期四
Look Up by Gary Turk
A really popular video on YouTube by Gary Turk... it's called "Look Up"... he wrote this to encourage us to quit social media...
Look Up
I have 422 friends yet I am lonely
I speak to all of them everyday yet none of them really know me
The problem I have sits in the space in-between
Looking into their eyes or at a name on a screen
I speak to all of them everyday yet none of them really know me
The problem I have sits in the space in-between
Looking into their eyes or at a name on a screen
I took a step back and opened my eyes
I looked round and realised
This media we call social is anything but
when we open our computers and it’s our doors we shut
I looked round and realised
This media we call social is anything but
when we open our computers and it’s our doors we shut
All this technology we have it’s just an illusion
Community, companionship, a sense of inclusion
When you step away from this device of delusion
You awaken to see a world of confusion
Community, companionship, a sense of inclusion
When you step away from this device of delusion
You awaken to see a world of confusion
A world where we’re slaves to the technology we mastered
Where information gets sold by some rich, greedy bastard
A world of self-interest, self-image, self-promotion
Where we all share our best bits but leave out the emotion
Where information gets sold by some rich, greedy bastard
A world of self-interest, self-image, self-promotion
Where we all share our best bits but leave out the emotion
We’re at our most happy with an experience we share
But is it the same if no one is there?
Be there for your friends and they’ll be there too
But no one will be if a group message will do
But is it the same if no one is there?
Be there for your friends and they’ll be there too
But no one will be if a group message will do
We edit and exaggerate, crave adulation
We pretend not to notice the social isolation
We put our words into order till our lives are glistening
We don’t even know if anyone is listening
We pretend not to notice the social isolation
We put our words into order till our lives are glistening
We don’t even know if anyone is listening
Being alone isn’t the problem let me just emphasise
If you read a book, paint a picture, or do some exercise
You’re being productive and present not reserved and reclused
You’re being awake and attentive and putting your time to good use
If you read a book, paint a picture, or do some exercise
You’re being productive and present not reserved and reclused
You’re being awake and attentive and putting your time to good use
So when you’re in public and you start to feel alone
Put your hands behind your head, step away from the phone
You don’t need to stare at your menu or at your contact list
Just talk to one another, learn to co-exist
Put your hands behind your head, step away from the phone
You don’t need to stare at your menu or at your contact list
Just talk to one another, learn to co-exist
I can’t stand to hear the silence of a busy commuter train
When no one wants to talk for the fear of looking insane
We’re becoming unsocial, it no longer satisfies
To engage with one another and look into someone’s eyes.
When no one wants to talk for the fear of looking insane
We’re becoming unsocial, it no longer satisfies
To engage with one another and look into someone’s eyes.
We’re surrounded by children who since they were born
Have watched us living like robots and think it’s the norm
It’s not very likely you’ll make world’s greatest Dad
If you can’t entertain a child without using an iPad
Have watched us living like robots and think it’s the norm
It’s not very likely you’ll make world’s greatest Dad
If you can’t entertain a child without using an iPad
When I was a child I’d never be home
I’d be out with my friends, on our bikes we’d roam
I’d wear holes in my trainers and graze up my knees
Or build our own clubhouse high up in the trees
I’d be out with my friends, on our bikes we’d roam
I’d wear holes in my trainers and graze up my knees
Or build our own clubhouse high up in the trees
Now the park is so quiet it gives me a chill
See no children outside and the swings hanging still
There’s no skipping, no hopscotch, no church and no steeple
We’re a generation of idiots, smart phones and dumb people
See no children outside and the swings hanging still
There’s no skipping, no hopscotch, no church and no steeple
We’re a generation of idiots, smart phones and dumb people
So look up from your phone, shut down the display
Take in your surroundings, make the most of today
Just one real connection is all it can take
To show you the difference that being there can make
Take in your surroundings, make the most of today
Just one real connection is all it can take
To show you the difference that being there can make
Be there in the moment as she gives you the look
That you remember forever as when love overtook
The time she first held your hand or first kissed your lips
The time you first disagreed but still loved her to bits
That you remember forever as when love overtook
The time she first held your hand or first kissed your lips
The time you first disagreed but still loved her to bits
The time you don’t have to tell hundreds of what you’ve just done
Because you want to share this moment with just this one.
The time you sell your computer so you can buy a ring
For the girl of your dreams who is now the real thing
Because you want to share this moment with just this one.
The time you sell your computer so you can buy a ring
For the girl of your dreams who is now the real thing
The time you want to start a family and the moment when
You first hold your little girl and get to fall in love again
The time she keeps you up at nights and all you want is rest
And the time you wipe away the tears as your baby flees the nest
You first hold your little girl and get to fall in love again
The time she keeps you up at nights and all you want is rest
And the time you wipe away the tears as your baby flees the nest
The time your baby girl returns with a boy for you to hold
And the time he calls you Grandad and makes you feel real old
The time you take in all you’ve made when you’re giving life attention
And how you’re real glad you didn’t waste it by looking down at some invention
And the time he calls you Grandad and makes you feel real old
The time you take in all you’ve made when you’re giving life attention
And how you’re real glad you didn’t waste it by looking down at some invention
The time you hold your wife’s hand, sit down beside her bed.
You tell her that you love her, lay a kiss upon her head.
She then whispers to you quietly as her heart gives a final beat
That she’s lucky she got stopped by that lost boy in the street
You tell her that you love her, lay a kiss upon her head.
She then whispers to you quietly as her heart gives a final beat
That she’s lucky she got stopped by that lost boy in the street
But none of these times ever happened. You never had any of this
When you’re too busy looking down, you don’t see the chances you miss
When you’re too busy looking down, you don’t see the chances you miss
So look up from your phones, shut down those displays
We have a finite existence, a set number of days
Don’t waste your life getting caught in the net
because when the end comes, nothing’s worse than regret
We have a finite existence, a set number of days
Don’t waste your life getting caught in the net
because when the end comes, nothing’s worse than regret
I am guilty too of being part of this machine
this digital world we are heard but not seen
where we type as we talk and read as we chat
where we spend hours together without making eye-contact
this digital world we are heard but not seen
where we type as we talk and read as we chat
where we spend hours together without making eye-contact
So don’t give in to a life where you follow the hype
Give people your love, don’t give them your “like”
Disconnect from the need to be heard and defined
Go out into the world, leave distractions behind
Give people your love, don’t give them your “like”
Disconnect from the need to be heard and defined
Go out into the world, leave distractions behind
Look up from your phone, shut down the display
Stop watching this video, live life the real way.
Stop watching this video, live life the real way.
2015年1月5日 星期一
人一生為什麼要有２個孩子？(回應篇)
續上一篇網上看到的文章... 網友的回應, 也很感人, 很有共鳴:
我生老二的原因。
有一天我們都走了…他或她在這世間上，唯一的親人就只有
我和老公一定無法陪伴他們一輩子，所以，在未來我幫他們
有一天我們都走了…他或她在這世間上，唯一的親人就只有
我和老公一定無法陪伴他們一輩子，所以，在未來我幫他們
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我今年32歲，一個姊姊大我一歲，兩個弟弟，一個今年2
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我也有兩個弟弟
小時候一起玩、一起說謊、一起被罵
一起考不好還互推看誰先去送死
被打比賽誰比較痛然後哭著安慰彼此
長大後比體貼、比溫暖
誰晚回家都會帶著宵夜害對方變胖
在家的會抱怨卻默默幫彼此完成家事
然後提醒「下次你補給我」（超愛計較）
懂事後不吵架了，家人更像情人
每天都嚷嚷著想對方愛對方
我和兩個弟弟
是爸媽給的最好禮物
一起考不好還互推看誰先去送死
被打比賽誰比較痛然後哭著安慰彼此
長大後比體貼、比溫暖
誰晚回家都會帶著宵夜害對方變胖
在家的會抱怨卻默默幫彼此完成家事
然後提醒「下次你補給我」（超愛計較）
懂事後不吵架了，家人更像情人
每天都嚷嚷著想對方愛對方
我和兩個弟弟
是爸媽給的最好禮物
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我是因為愛老大才會有老二，身為父母的我們，總有一天會
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我們家生兩個，原因是我們夫妻倆有一天走的時候，兩兄弟
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我35歲,我也很感謝媽咪給我生了一個相差15個月的老
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曾經想過，活在這個世界上 父母對我們做了什麼事情？
花了半生的時間，在扶養我們，經營這個家，天上垮下來也
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沒錯，這就是我的體會，也是唯一能留給孩子們最重要的資
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我能深深體會到這種感覺……當你最無助的時候也是身旁的兄弟姐妹幫忙的……妹妹 謝謝妳
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我常告诉老大，父母伴侣只能陪你半辈子，只有兄弟姐妹可
人一生為什麼要有２個孩子？
Read this from Facebook... very touching... 很有感受...
[人一生為什麼要有２個孩子？最後一句是最好的答案！]
“痛成這樣，怎麼會有人想生第二個！！”
所以就有了這個答案....
因為我已經給了你們最好的禮物
就是.....
2015年1月3日 星期六
Happy 2015 ~
很多很多年, 沒有到現場看煙花了. 今年除夕夜和老公到了灣仔海傍倒數, 迎接2015年的來臨~ 人愈來愈大, 也愈感到時光飛逝, 真的轉眼就已經一年光境... 有時, 這時光沖沖的感覺, 真的讓人挺無力的...
十一時半左右, 我們到了會展附近, 人很多, 有利靠前的位置已被佔據, 我們只好一直往前走, 去到面對尖沙咀的文化中心的梯級處, 雖然前方有2棵樹, 但煙花船也在不遠, 應該算是不錯的 spot... 到了11時時59分50秒, 倒數開始了, ICC Building 外側的 LCD 出現了 COUNTDOWN 字樣, 跟著 10... 9... 8... 7... 6... 5... 4... 3... 2... 1...
WELCOME 2015~
煙火匯演開始!
維港上空, 被煙花照耀得如白日般光明, 五光十色的各式煙火, 燦爛悦目; 不知道為什麼, 心中突然有一片感動, 看著眼前的''輝煌'', 回想起2014年香港經歷的點點滴滴, 這一年, 對大家而言, 真的不容易...
曾經多麼光輝的過去, 多麼和諧溫暖的生活, 就如眼前燦爛的煙火, 讓人開懷; 但現在的香港, 怎麼會變成這樣子? 真有種心痛的感覺... 什麼時候, 我從前熟識的家, 才會回來呢?
很多人說過, 香港是一片福地. 願我的家, 依然會是我們的福地...
加油!
祝福!
2014年12月28日 星期日
Ultimate Hotel Horror?!
In the past week, I have experienced two different hotels with similar bathroom designs - "Transparent" Bathroom - which means everytime when you go pee-pee or poo-poo or take shower, people in the room can actually see what you are doing ~ Some people might think that's romantic, but I do believe that even with your loved ones, you still need some privacy, right?
That's why I don't really like such design... unfortunately, seems like this bathroom design is becoming a new trend for modern hotels...
Read this article online yesterday... which speaks my mind:
That's why I don't really like such design... unfortunately, seems like this bathroom design is becoming a new trend for modern hotels...
Read this article online yesterday... which speaks my mind:
Rant: Open/Exposed Hotel Bathrooms Create Awkward Situations
When I travel, 9/10 times I will split a hotel room with friends, family members, or other traveling companions to keep the costs at a minimum. Typically when traveling with 2-3 friends, we book a room with two beds, and request a roll-away bed or a pull-out couch if it’s available so that everyone has their own space to sleep comfortably. This technique has worked for me perfectly 100% of the time for more than decade… until hotels decided to modernize (which I’m all for) and integrate open and/or exposed bathrooms into the rooms.
I agree that given the appropriate circumstances, an open bathroom can be both sexy and intriguing, but if I am sharing a room with someone I am not romantically-involved with, it’s just plain awkward.
In the last few months alone, there were 4 instances of this happening:
- On a recent trip with some girlfriends, we stayed at the Conrad San Juan and were given a great room. The only pitfall was that there was no bathroom door, and the shower was right smack in the middle with all-around glass. Sure it was “sexy”, but not very practical when 4 girls were scrambling to get ready each day. It was awkward seeing my friends shower while I was applying makeup at the bathroom sink – but we made do.
- Another instance was when a friend of mine and I were working a really long 16-hour day in the Boston area. After we were finished working, we checked into a nearby aloft where we discovered that one shower wall exposed to the bedroom in a steamy silhouette manner; I was exhausted and all I wanted was to sleep, but I felt it was necessary to leave the room while my friend showered so he could have privacy. Again, not practical for non-romantically involved parties.
- A third instance was at the Rio Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas. I was there recently for a BlogWorld conference and opted to share a room with someone. There were two beds, and all was good until I saw that the shower had a full open window looking into the bedroom. It wasn’t even coated to look cloudy; the window was clear as day. To fix that situation, I ended up having to block the window entirely with various objects to ensure privacy.
- Finally, a fourth instance was actually very recent. I am heading back home from Tel Aviv tonight after an awesome time exploring the country with my friend Jamison. During our last night on the trip together, we had a great re-modeled room at the Park Plaza Orchid Hotel. Our room also had a very large 42″ “window” connecting the bathroom to main part of the room. Neither of us took showers that evening.
Yes, I know there’s probably some knucklehead out there reading this and thinking something along the lines of, “well, if you want to avoid these scenarios, then just book your own room”. Yes, you’re correct… but if I wasn’t such a bargainista, then I probably wouldn’t be writing this blog. ;)
The moral of the story is: when two beds are booked, chances are that sexytime isn’t on the agenda, so there’s really no need to try to seduce guests with an inviting bathroom design.
Now that I think about it, I have a trip to Australia with Dad coming up next month. Let’s hope our hotels get the memo that I am his daughter, not wife.
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